The Centre for Global Development has recently published a report about the possible scenarios for global economic growth until 2050. In order to create these scenarios, the centre considers several important factors, including current income, demographic features, climate, education, and lagged income. Each of these factors plays a crucial role in developing a scenario that can help in reducing global poverty.
The economic forecast predicted by the Centre of Global Development shows that the end of extreme poverty may finally be able to be achieved by 2050. This does, however, extend the time to end extreme poverty from 2030 which is the goal of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
Using my own NGO, the Tej Kohli & Ruit Foundation, we have contributed to the reduction of extreme poverty in countries such as Nepal, Bhutan and Ghana.
As I have mentioned many times before, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly reversed progress that was made towards the reduction of extreme poverty.
Despite this reversal, the Centre of Global Development has predicted that although the pandemic caused a reverse in progress, and other challenges are bound to occur, they are likely to have a limited impact on the overall trajectory of global growth.
A senior fellow, Charles Kenny, at the Centre for Global Development claimed that: “Climate change is a huge concern for the future…but we can’t let it overshadow the fact that continued economic growth should leave almost no one in the most desperate poverty that was the lot of the vast majority of humanity for most of history”
While short-term expert forecasts may provide significant value over naïve forecasts, their effectiveness decreases as the forecast period becomes longer.
Accurate forecasts about the future shape of the global economy can be valuable in informing planning and policy discussions, ranging from global governance to business expansion plans, particularly in the context of climate change.
Charles Kenny also expressed that he thinks it’s helpful to predict how the world’s economies will be in the future. It helps to think about problems like poverty and military spending and make plans to solve them.
He’s worried that rich countries might not grow much because of their ageing populations. This could make them adopt strict policies during recessions. However, he’s still optimistic.
Overall, the accuracy of such forecasts is a crucial factor, as economic growth outcomes are unstable and can be influenced by unpredictable shocks.
To find out more about the Tej Kohli & Ruit Foundation and what we do visit: www.tejkohliruit.com.
To read about Tej Kohli as an investor visit Kohli Ventures.
Find out more about Tej Kohli: Tej Kohli the technologist investing in human triumph, Tej Kohli the philanthropist trying to cure the developing world of cataracts and Tej Kohli the London tycoon with a generous streak.